Phillies vs. Twins Odds 22.07.2024 | MLB Odds, Predictions

The Phillies maintained their lead in the Major League Baseball standings with a 63-36 record and avoided defeat in Pittsburgh. Philadelphia has been the best team in the league all year and will be a good opponent for the Twins.

Minnesota played unevenly in the first half of the season. But since June 10, the Twins are 21-12, fourth-best in the league. They retain their wild-card spot despite still trailing Cleveland by five games in the division.

The Phillies are expecting their three best pitchers to take the floor in this series.

Philadelphia Phillies

With the Phillies, Ranger Suarez went from a middle reliever to a supporting starter and a Cy Young candidate. In 19 starts, the pitcher earned All-Star honors, going 10-4 with an ERA of 2.76.

Metric: 3.19 xERA. But now he is experiencing three unsuccessful performances in a row. Hopefully the All-Star break was enough for Suarez to regain his form after his hot start.

Suarez is not an elite striker, but his combination of sinker and curveball helps him keep the ball on the ground and limit damage. In 13 of his 19 starts, he pitched at least six innings.

Philadelphia’s line has weathered injuries to Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto and hasn’t seemed to miss a beat. The Phillies offense ranks third in wOBA and fourth in the league in runs scored.

75% of the Phillies’ infielders were named to the All-Star team, and this team has depth throughout the lineup. Four players have a wRC+ of at least 130. Even after missing time, Harper ranks eighth in baseball in fWAR.

Minnesota Twins

Bailey Ober is a pretty normal pitcher — solid and above average with a 4.14 ERA and 3.63 xERA.

Although Ober has only two scoreless games this season, he has only missed one hit. He knows how to limit hard contact and does everything else at an above-average level.

His fastball has been a plus pitch for him in the past, but this year his fastball is a minus pitch, producing a .307 average and a .410 EPS. He has used his fastball 38.9% this season, down nearly 10% from previous years. This decline makes sense because all of his secondary pitchers were in the black.

Minnesota cannot keep Royce Lewis and Jose Miranda on the field because they are on the injured list. However, Minnesota still ranks fourth among Major League Baseball teams in wRC+, and the Twins boast the best wOBA since early June.

Even without Lewis, Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and All-Star Willie Castro are finally healthy and coming off big years. Buxton hit .403 with a 1.319 OPS over the last month.

Phillies vs. Twins predictions

As good as Suarez has been this season, he has allowed 15 earned runs in his last three starts. The hard hits are starting to rise and he has made seven free throws in three starts.

He will have a tough matchup against a Minnesota team that is destroying left-handed pitching. The Twins rank third in the league in wRC+ and wOBA against lefties. Castro, Correa, Buxton and Carlos Santana have an OPS above .900 against lefties.

Ober is an above-average pitcher, but the Phillies’ elite lineup is finally back to full strength. Ober is a fly-ball pitcher who allows too many barrels, and Philadelphia should be able to attack his fastball.

Even with two amazing bullpens, there’s plenty of pop in these lineups.